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AXNT20 KNHC 051732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Nov 5 2020

2021-03-11T01:31:45Z

Created page with "<br /> 000<br /> AXNT20 KNHC 051732<br /> TWDAT <br /> <br /> Tropical Weather Discussion<br /> NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br /> 1805 UTC Thu Nov 5 2020<br /> <br..."

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<br /> 000<br /> AXNT20 KNHC 051732<br /> TWDAT <br /> <br /> Tropical Weather Discussion<br /> NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br /> 1805 UTC Thu Nov 5 2020<br /> <br /> Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br /> Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br /> America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br /> Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite<br /> imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /> <br /> Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br /> 1715 UTC.<br /> <br /> ...SPECIAL FEATURES...<br /> <br /> Tropical Depression ETA continues to produce heavy rains and <br /> life-threatening flooding to sections of Central America. The <br /> center of Tropical Depression Eta, at 05/1500 UTC, is inland <br /> over Honduras near 15.1N 87.8W. Eta is moving toward the NW, or <br /> 305 degrees, at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is <br /> 1005 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 <br /> kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails from Costa <br /> Rica to the Yucatan Peninsula and the western Caribbean waters <br /> mainly west of 77W. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is <br /> expected to move across northwestern Honduras through this <br /> afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. <br /> Eta is forecast to intensify and approach the Cayman Islands <br /> and western or central Cuba this weekend.<br /> <br /> Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: <br /> https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast <br /> Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for <br /> more details. Rainfall may cause catastrophic, life-threatening <br /> flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in <br /> areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and <br /> river flooding are possible in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, <br /> Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and southeastern Mexico.<br /> <br /> ...TROPICAL WAVES...<br /> <br /> An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 44W from 02N-<br /> 16N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are <br /> noted in the vicinity of the wave mainly south of 10N. <br /> <br /> A central Atlantic tropical wave wit axis along 58W, from 14N <br /> southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are <br /> noted <br /> along the wave's axis.<br /> <br /> ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...<br /> <br /> The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal <br /> near 16N17W to 13N22W. The ITCZ continues from 13N22W to 06N41W. <br /> Scattered showers prevail south of the boundaries between <br /> 10W-25W.<br /> <br /> GULF OF MEXICO...<br /> <br /> Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a high <br /> pressure centered over the west Atlantic. over the western <br /> Gulf, scatterometer data depicted a surface trough that extends <br /> from 29N94W to 22N94W. To the southeast, a shearline is analyzed <br /> from 24N80W to 22N87W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted <br /> across most of the basin south of 27N, while gentle to moderate <br /> winds prevail elsewhere. <br /> <br /> Strong high pressure will maintain fresh to strong NE winds in <br /> the southeastern half of the basin, through early Friday. The <br /> wind speeds will remain fresh to strong in the eastern Gulf of <br /> Mexico during the upcoming weekend. T.D. Eta will move inland to <br /> 15.7N 88.0W this evening, 16.8N 87.6W Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W <br /> Fri evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat <br /> morning, 20.1N 83.0W Sat evening, and 21.3N 81.2W Sun morning. <br /> Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 23.0N <br /> 80.0W early Mon. High pressure extending into the region from <br /> the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong NE winds over <br /> the eastern half of the basin through Sun. Tropical storm <br /> conditions are possible in the Straits of Florida Sun night and <br /> Mon.<br /> <br /> CARIBBEAN SEA...<br /> <br /> Please refer to the section above for details on T.D Eta.<br /> <br /> Over the remainder of the basin, scatterometer data depicts <br /> gentle to moderate trades. A surface trough extends across west <br /> Hispaniola with scattered showers.<br /> <br /> Tropical Depression Eta will move inland to 15.7N 88.0W this <br /> evening, 16.8N 87.6W Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W Fri evening, <br /> strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat morning, <br /> 20.1N 83.0W Sat evening, and 21.3N 81.2W Sun morning. Eta will <br /> change little in intensity as it moves to near 23.0N 80.0W early <br /> Mon. The center of Eta is expected to emerge over the Gulf of <br /> Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman <br /> Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend.<br /> <br /> ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /> <br /> Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical <br /> waves moving across the basin.<br /> <br /> A shearline extends from 29N54W to 24N69W to 24N80W. Scattered <br /> moderate convection is noted along the shearline mainly west <br /> of 60W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N50W to<br /> 24N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N <br /> between 46W-52W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.<br /> <br /> The center of the now T.D. Eta is expected to emerge over the <br /> Gulf of Honduras by tonight, and will re-intensify into a <br /> tropical cyclone on Fri in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong <br /> winds are expected W of 70W this upcoming weekend. Tropical <br /> storm conditions are possible between Cuba and the Bahamas Sun <br /> night and Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic <br /> Sat through Mon. <br /> <br /> The shearline will dissipate within the next 24 hours. A cold <br /> front will enter the central Atlantic enhancing seas.<br /> <br /> $$<br /> ERA<br />